Making the case for simulation: unlocking carbon reduction through simulation of individual ‘middle actor’ behaviour/

This paper makes the case for agent-based modelling as a route to unlocking the potential of existing buildings to reduce energy demand and contribute to achieving carbon reduction targets. The construction of a model to simulate this system requires significant innovation in data collection and handling. The need to focus on ‘middle actors’ in construction – specifically the tradesmen who carry out repair, maintenance and renovation – in order to reduce energy demand in existing buildings is described. This is the first work that proposes to simulate these actors. After identifying this opportunity, the paper considers what modelling techniques are required to describe the possible effects of changes to middle actor behaviour across the construction industry. Having discussed the different types of data needed, the paper uses the ‘overview, design, detail’ approach to describe how an agent-based model might be developed, using rule sets derived from middle actor data. Finally, the types of interventions that might be tested are outlined, indicating how policy and practice could be informed by the proposed modelling approach.